WE’VE teamed up with BetVictor and Charlie McCann to preview the weeeknd’s big races.
The end of the Flat season is upon us as the November Handicap takes centre stage on Saturday. The mourners will arrive at Doncaster to bury their beloved turf season until it resurrects again for the Lincoln next year.
Beginning or end, there is still prize money to be had, a runner to be crowned and bets to be won. Sir Henry Cecil’s unbeaten contender, First Mohican heads the market at 7/2 with BetVictor.
Reflecting on his impressive three and a half-length victory at Nottingham recently, we’ve seen a steady flow of money for him.
The going is currently good to soft, soft in places and having already won on more testing conditions, he’ll appreciate any rain in the air. A worthy favourite? I think you can bet your hat on him to cap off 2012 with a big run!
This race is often tackled by studying previous trends. So we here we go. No horse has ever won this twice- that is non applicable here, so that’s no help.
Now look at previous winning trainers and evaluate their runners- it seems Gosden, soon to be retired John Dunlop, Arbuthnot, Hannon and Charlton do NOT have runners. So how do you go about finding the winner in this highly competitive 20+ runner handicap?
Having backed last year’s winner Zuider Zee at a double figures this year I’m sticking to form again.
There are a few runners who have caught my eye. Amanda Perrett’s Blue Surf being one of them. BetVictor make him an 9/1 shot, which looks value to me. He’s won three of his six starts this year, not forgetting a very competitive Newbury Handicap where he handled testing conditions perfectly.
He’s bred for the trip and would have performed better at Ascot, had he not been hampered at a crucial stage.
Second in the betting and soft ground specialist Nicholascopernicus is now coming back into form, having won a Conditions race at Goodwood last time out.
He may give Cecil’s Hot Pot something to think about, if the ground continues to soften. If you like to follow the money then take a look at Kevin Ryan’s Clayton. He’s lightly raced but his only victory came on the all-weather. For this reason I wouldn’t be getting involved.
In the Fillies Listed race (2.00 Doncaster) the booking of Richard Hughes on Reckoning caught my eye. This Noseda filly has a bit to find but she’s the least exposed and has won her only race here. Big positive for me and I would be happy to have a fiver on her at a decent price.
For all your weekend odds check out betvictor.com